To: SECSTATE WASHDC - PRIORITY
September 18, 2002
Action: INL
From: AMEMBASSY LA PAZ (LA PAZ 3378 - PRIORITY)
Subject: PRESIDENT MEETS WITH EVO MORALES; MORE NEGOTIATIONS SCHEDULED,
GOB SETS STRATEGY
1. (SBU) Summary: President Sanchez de Lozada and cocalero leader Evo
Morales held their long publicized meeting on September 13 in Cochabamba (reftel
A). The session lasted nearly four hours and was portrayed positively in the
weekend media. Both sides have agreed to form "commissions" to discuss the
entire gamut of coca-related issues beginning this week. The GOB has staked
out a favorable public relations position as essentially willing to go the
extra mile to negotiate. Meanwhile, the two essential cocalero demands - an
end to eradication and "demilitarization of the Chapare," - still appear to
be the ultimate deal-breakers. End Summary.
2. (U) Both the cocaleros and the GOB reaped positive media coverage
after the four-hour meeting held between the two sides on September 13. They
agreed to form commissions and meet again this weekend to discuss
eradication, the "demilitarization of the Chapare," "the industrialization
of coca," and alternative development. [REDACTED HALF PARAGRAPH]
GOB gains the high ground
3. (SBU) The GOB has positioned itself well going into these
negotiations. It has shown itself to be forthcoming and willing to initiate
a dialogue with the cocaleros of Evo Morales. It has treated Morales with
respect. The GOB has listened to a long list of cocalero complaints and baa
agreed to form commissions to discuss these issues further beginning this
week. This has, in fact, been an integral part of the GOB strategy. If talks
fail, the GOB will be seen as having made every effort to go the extra mile
to avoid confrontation. Meanwhile, Morales
and his cocaleros have also come across well, non-confrontational, and
willing to discuss issues further with the GOB.
Behind this friendly facade, of
course, exists the possibility that, if talks fail, the cocaleros will
escalate the confrontation and undertake blockades of the vital Cochabamba-Santa
Cruz road.
A GOB strategy takes shape
4. (SBU) Vice Minister of Social Defense Ernesto Justiniano and a small
group of like-minded engineers have outlined what is essentially a complex
order of rhetorical battle. Their major objective is to ‘secure social peace
and maintain a strong counter-narcotics policy. The crux of the issue is
whether or not these two objectives are mutually incompatible. They have
outlined a long list of "obligatory objectives" and "desirable objectives."
Two rooms of the Vice Minister’s suite of office are papered over with
poster-sized signs covered in red, blue and green magic marker describing
various strategies and tactics to bring about the main objective.
5. (U) The cocaleros, for example, have
insisted upon a survey of domestic use of coca. Justiniano’s group had
copies of recent studies, including a study by the reputable Gallup-type
group CELIN indicating domestic usage is only a little more than 5,000
hectares per year (Law 1008 permits up to 12,000 hectares for domestic
consumption). The Vice Minister’s commission is prepared to provide this
information to the cocalero delegation, though, in reality, a new study
would not be unwelcome.
6. (U) The cocaleros have suggested further discussions on the
"industrialization of coca,
essentially finding other markets for coca. Coca toothpaste has been
suggested, though we doubt this has much of a future. This approach has been
tried before with no success. In the end, the only thing coca can produce
effectively, except for coca tea, is cocaine. The
export of coca tea to other markets, for example, to china as explained
to us by GOB officials, is also to be explored.
Essentially a Political Problem
7. (SBU) Despite the best efforts of the Vice-Minister of Social Defense
to approach this in a logical linear manner, the bottom line is that this is
essentially a political issue, requiring a political solution. As per
reftels, we believe Morales is hesitant to play his trump card - call for a
nationwide blockade - because of the political negatives inherent in such a
move. However, as long as he holds to his two essentially non-negotiable
demands - an end to eradication and the demilitarization of the Chapare -
and refuses to be accommodated by other concessions on the part of the GOB,
Morales may see no choice but to escalate the conflict. The GOB's challenge
will be to make coins creative concessions without compromising on the
crucial issue, and to provide Morales something to take to his people and
claim "victory". [REDACTED PARAGRAPH]
8. (SBU) It is hard to see a palatable way out of this situation. Both
aides have invested a great deal and both sides need a way out that would
satisfy their particular constituencies. The GOB and the cocaleros could buy
additional time by prolonging these discussions as the commissions continue
to pursue the relevant issues. But, as one GOB official said with some
dismay, "As long as they (the cocaleros) insist on a halt to eradication and
demilitarization of the Chapare, I don t see a peaceful way out of this."
P 181523Z SEP 02
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4529
INFO DIR ONDCP WASHINGTON DC 0246
DEPT OF STATE AIR WING PATRICK APB FL
US INTERDICTION COORD WASHINGTON DC
NSC WASHINGTON DC
USCINCSO MIAMI FL//SCJ2/POLAD//
DEA HQS WASHINGTON DC
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
DIA WASHINGTON DC
AMEMBASSY BOGOTA
AMEMBASSY LIMA
AMEMBASSY QUITO